Iran

[Rideback]

And in case you think Trump has the country covered in the counter terrorism world, he has appointed a 22 year old grocery store clerk
https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/cri ... tribution/

[Rideback]

Closure that will effect price of gas at the pump
https://www.newsweek.com/iran-parliamen ... ks-2088968

[Rideback]

Tulsi Gabbard DNI testifies under oath before Congress:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AI7DxXOdpI4

[mister_coffee]

That doesn't exactly look promising...

[pasayten]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pentagon-hol ... 00586.html

[Rideback]

For what it's worth. Russia responds
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 025-06-22/

[mister_coffee]

There is no way either the US or Iran could do a complete damage assessment of what happened to Fordow in a few short hours.

Trump's statement, unless we got extremely lucky, is likely to come back to haunt us.

As far as I have heard, Iran hasn't (yet) produced weapons-grade Uranium. If they have we are screwed and they will eventually get a bomb and use it right away.

Another way we might be screwed: we used at least 14 of the GBU-57 penetrator bombs yesterday. We never made very many of them and we might not have many left. Or at least enough to finish the job, if that is even possible.

It isn't clear to me from the reports and OSI whether the penetrator bombs are even capable of damaging a site like Fordow.

[pasayten]

I believe one of Iran's goals with their nuclear programs was to develop weapons grade materials and then disperse/leak/"lose" some of those materials to terrorist groups sympathetic to the current regime's beliefs.

[just-jim]

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No - I dont believe the white house.
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[pasayten]

You believe them?

Then why this…

“ Officials in Iran are downplaying the impact of US strikes on its nuclear facilities, particularly the Fordow site buried deep in the mountains, in sharp contrast with US President Donald Trump’s claims that the attack “obliterated” them.”

[Rideback]

And yet Iran has replied that Fordow was inactive with everything moved from it many months ago.

[mister_coffee]

The claims coming out the White House are that all three nuclear sites (Fordow, Esfahan, and Nataz) have been destroyed.

[Rideback]

Following US bombings of Iranian nuclear sites, Iran has several potential avenues for response, ranging from diplomatic efforts to military actions. These options include escalating its nuclear program, retaliating against Israel and US interests in the region, and potentially engaging in cyber warfare or supporting regional proxies to attack US targets.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
1. Escalation of Nuclear Program:
Accelerated Enrichment:
Iran could accelerate its uranium enrichment program, potentially to weapons-grade levels, as a show of defiance and a means to gain leverage in future negotiations.
Withdrawal from the NPT:
Iran could withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, signaling a significant shift in its nuclear posture.
2. Military Retaliation:
Attacks on Israel:
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Given Israel's involvement in the initial strikes, Iran may choose to retaliate against Israeli targets, potentially using missiles, drones, and other asymmetric warfare tactics.
Attacks on US Interests:
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Iran could target US military bases, personnel, and assets in the region, either directly or through proxy groups.
Attacks on Gulf States:
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While less likely due to the potential for wider regional conflict, Iran could also target countries allied with the US in the Gulf region.
3. Cyber Warfare:
Disrupting US infrastructure:
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Iran could launch cyberattacks against US critical infrastructure, including energy grids, financial systems, and government networks.
Targeting US allies:
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Iran could also target the cyber infrastructure of countries allied with the US in the region.
4. Diplomatic and Political Responses:
Strengthening Alliances:
Iran could seek to strengthen its alliances with countries in the region and beyond that are critical of the US.
Seeking International Condemnation:
Iran could attempt to rally international condemnation of the US strikes through the United Nations and other international forums.
Resuming Nuclear Negotiations:
While unlikely given the recent escalation, Iran could also attempt to return to nuclear negotiations, potentially with different terms.
5. Proxy Warfare:
Supporting Regional Militias:
Iran could further empower its proxy groups and militias in the region to carry out attacks against US and Israeli interests.
Encouraging Insurgency:
Iran could also encourage existing insurgent groups to escalate their attacks against US forces and interests.
Important Considerations:
Risk of Escalation:
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Any of these responses carries the risk of escalating the conflict and leading to a wider regional war.
Domestic Political Considerations:
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Iran's response will also be shaped by internal political dynamics and the need to maintain legitimacy within the country.
US Response:
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The US response to any Iranian action will also be a major factor in determining the trajectory of the conflict.

[PAL]

Depends on what happens next now, if we have destroyed those capabilities. Can Iran do anything do us? As in cells here in the US ready to do something. Of course the agencies are probably monitoring chatter the best of their capabilities. The warnings for 9/11 were ignorned, however.

[just-jim]

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I recall reading a while back that Fordow was believed by some to be 400’ below ground.
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[mister_coffee]

I am FOR the destruction of Iranian nuclear capabilities.

That's great IF it works and IF we can. It isn't clear that is even possible and we are running a pretty deranged set of risks trying to manage that.

The GBU-57 has an official penetration capability of around 60m through normal soil, much less through solid rock or reinforced concrete. We don't know how deep the stuff is at Fordow or how it is armored or even if it is armored. We also don't have all that many of them (less than fifty) and we might need a lot more than that to do the job. Where will that leave us?

[pasayten]

I am FOR the destruction of Iranian nuclear capabilities.

[Rideback]

Breaking news: Trump has just completed three strikes against Iran.

https://apnews.com/article/israel-iran- ... 712d214579

[Rideback]

"THE WHOLE SHOW IS PERFORMATIVE NONSENSE."
- Gwynne Dyer
"...In 1992 Netanyah said Iran was “three to five years away from a bomb.” He said it again in 1995. It was allegedly only one year away in 2012, and it has always been “imminent” since 2019... Meanwhile
Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s director of national intelligence [testified] on March 26 of this year that... the U.S. intelligence community “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.”
FULL STORY:
HISTORY IN RERUNS - Gwynne Dyer
Wpg. Free Press, June 20, 2025
I’ve seen this movie already. I don’t want to see it again.
“They lied,” said U.S. President Donald Trump in 2016, when he was running for the Republican presidential nomination against the neocons in his own party who had started the “forever wars” in Afghanistan and Iraq. “They said there were weapons of mass destruction. There were none. And they knew there were none.”
Invading the wrong country is generally a big mistake, and everybody outside the United States knew it (except maybe Britain’s Tony Blair). However, then-president George W. Bush had to believe in Saddam Hussein’s alleged “weapons of mass destruction” so that he could invade Iraq and expunge the blame for having let 9/11 happen on his watch.
(Yes, I know Saddam Hussein had nothing to do with 9/11. Don’t get tangled up in the details. The point is that Bush managed to persuade Americans of a link between Saddam and 9/11.)
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu is in a similar position. He not only failed to prevent Hamas from carrying out the massacre of Oct. 7, 2023; he had previously allowed a flow of cash from Qatar into the Gaza Strip in order to ensure that the Palestinians remained divided between Hamas and Fatah.
Bibi must erase his guilt for that failure if he is to have a political future, and even the expulsion of the Palestinian population from Gaza (now being prepared) may not be enough. Whereas the destruction of the alleged Iranian nuclear weapons threat, and perhaps of the entire Iranian regime, could earn him full absolution within Israel.
Netanyahu is genuinely obsessed about such weapons, but there is also always a tactical, political element in his warnings. He said Iran was “three to five years away from a bomb” in 1992. He said it again in 1995. It was allegedly only one year away in 2012, and it has always been “imminent” since 2019.
Which brings us to the congressional testimony of Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s own director of national intelligence, on March 26 of this year. She said that the U.S. intelligence community “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.”
Finally, an American official who thinks she is working for her country, not for her party — but then she is also a combat veteran (Iraq) and a lieutenant-colonel in the National Guard. She takes her job seriously, and does not fall for all that guff about an Iranian nuclear weapons program.
There once was such a program. It began in the mid-1980s, when the fledgling Islamic Republic of Iran was invaded by Iraq (with U.S. encouragement and support). It was cancelled after the U.S. invaded Iraq and found no nuclear weapons there in 2003, and to the best of our knowledge, it has not been restarted since then.
All Middle Eastern governments know that they would face a pre-emptive Israeli nuclear strike if they ever sought nuclear weapons of their own. (Israel has had nuclear weapons since the late 1960s and now has a hundred or more, deliverable by planes, missiles and submarines.) The idea that Iran is working on such weapons now is frankly ridiculous.
The whole show is performative nonsense. Even if Iran had weapons-grade uranium now, fabricating warheads, testing the weapons and devising a reliable means of delivery (it has nothing suitable now) would take years.
Whereas if Israel really believed Tehran were close to success now, it would have nuked all of Iran’s facilities six months ago. Trump has long known that Bibi was trying to sucker him into a joint war against Iran, and never fell for it before.
Why now? Probably because he just can’t resist the opportunity to strut around emoting on the stage. Look at his recent tweets.
“We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there — We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.” And a couple of minutes later: “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
They won’t surrender. This will be Trump’s own “forever war.”
Gwynne Dyer’s new book is Intervention Earth: Life-Saving Ideas from the World’s Climate Engineers.

[mister_coffee]

Well, reports are that about six B-2 bombers are heading west to Diego Garcia.

The B-2 is the only aircraft that can carry the GBU-57 bunker buster, which is likely the only conventional munition in the world that can damage the Iranian facility at Fordow. Although even that is not 100 percent certain.

But it sure is going to suck if we attack Fordow and those bombs can't damage the site.

[Rideback]

And when DNI Tulsi Gabbard testified in front of Congress that Iran was not building nuclear weapons that statement has been edited out of her testimony by the WH in their latest posting on the situation.

One would think that editing out a statement like that would be frowned upon by the guy who is suing CBS for billions for editing the Kamala Harris interview. Just sayin...

[mister_coffee]

It sure is comforting that The White House, The Secretary of Defense, and the DNI are not talking to each other because of some reality tv drama. All while we are being manipulated into military action against Iran.

Military action that a solid majority of Americans, across party lines, do not support.

[Rideback]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/liv ... bcd720d210