On Day One, even

just-jim
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Re: On Day One, even

Post by just-jim »

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Thanks, David. I fixed the link.
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Re: On Day One, even

Post by PAL »

All good points David. But speculation. Maybe phsychologically getting ourselves ready? Praise the Methow.
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Re: On Day One, even

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Corrected link:

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.c ... er-13-2023

In other news:
Meanwhile, the Biden administration today celebrated the drop of the inflation rate to zero for the month of October, meaning that prices did not rise at all between September and October. That flat month means the yearly inflation rate dropped to 3.2% for the past year. Much of that lower inflation rate reflects lower gasoline prices, which dropped 5% in October.
My own thoughts about Trump's coming out in the open about his intentions for another term:

1. It is hard to imagine how this will persuade more people than it will horrify.
2. When a government goes down that road, it is hard to predict who won't end up being a victim. Keep in mind that in both Stalin's purges and Mao's cultural revolution a lot of people who got the bullet were party members in good standing. Something that red-hat wearing conservatives should pause and think about.
3. Unless it is very carefully orchestrated, I'd imagine the short-term results of any attempts to do such things will be unmitigated chaos. I suspect but do not know that large parts of the civilian government and military will refuse to go along with any such antics. Also some government officials will do their best to monkey wrench the whole procedure. A likely result will be that the armed portions of the United States government will be effectively paralyzed.
4. Too many streets, not enough tanks. Well-understood and documented military rules hold that to successfully occupy a location, you need a 40 to 1 ratio between civilians and occupiers. Even with the entire military, reserve, and national guard components we would probably be five million short. And realistically on a short timeline with no notice it is unlikely we could kick loose more than 50_000 for such duties. Which by those formulas would be barely enough to occupy the greater Seattle area. A force that small would be a gnat in a blast furnace in New York or Los Angeles.
5. Most likely idiocy such as this would trigger a civil war. And it wouldn't be as glamorous as the last one. Chances are it would be a confusing array of armed groups attacking each other and civilians they didn't like. Imagine several hundred domestic Al-Qaedas savagely fighting it out here amongst each other and anyone who got in the way. In the meantime government at the federal level is paralyzed and state and local governments would be largely helpless at maintaining any level of order and security.
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Re: On Day One, even

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HC Richardson’s column, yesterday, had a good synopsis of this whole effort of guilty donnie….

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.c ... er-13-2023

What is remarkable…or maybe not…is the unwillingness of other Rep. leaders to condemn his speech. Even the Chair of the Republican Committee.

“ Republicans have refused to disavow Trump’s language. When Kristen Welker of Meet the Press asked Republican National Committee chair Ronna McDaniel: “Are you comfortable with this language coming from the [Republican] frontrunner,” McDaniel answered: “I am not going to comment on candidates and their campaign messaging.” Others have remained silent.”
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Re: On Day One, even

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Chris is confusing what actually happened - and is observable - with ‘what ifs’. Trying to compare what might have happened in 2016 and what DID in 2020 isn’t the same. Using a ‘see-back-ro-scope’ to say ‘Obama coulda done x in 2016 and then y mighta happened in 2020’ is completely different than observing what actually DID happen – which was that slow and bungled responses cost lives.

Playing ‘what if’ games….
If Christopher Columbus’s sailors had gotten a bit more drunk and they hadn’t left the harbor….
If John Wilkes Booth had got bitten by a dog on the way to the theatre ….
If Einstein had preferred Interior Decorating or Dance instead of Physics and quantum mechanics….
If Josephine had loved on Napoleon a bit more………
All that is just meaningless conjecture.

Development of a vaccine in 2016 didn’t happen for the reasons I listed – it wasn’t needed and no one could make a $ on it. Regardless of whether it would even have been effective in 2020.

People like my Cousins partner can use their knowledge of how viruses spread and look at epidemiological data, and make some estimates of what the cost – in human lives - of not having taken or delaying certain actions was. That’s what he did. (I should have added… my conversation with him was early/mid summer 2020, before vaccine development did – finally and thankfully - take off.)

I am also 100% sure that all our lives were - thankfully - were in the hands of professionals like my cousins partner.

And thanks, David - yes, back to the topic at hand!
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Re: On Day One, even

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Here we go again. What is wrong with opinions? I guess it can be said they lead to misinformation? But if we know it is an opinion, then we have to use our analytic thinking to see if it is a factual opinion or if it is just an opinion that is being shared. It is like discussing issues over coffee or drinks with friends on this BB.
Does it have to be so rigid? I'll keep posting my opinions if I want to. Since you are out Chris, I expect no reply to this. Ha Ha Ha.
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Re: On Day One, even

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More opinion. Bla, bla, bla. I'm out.
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Re: On Day One, even

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Vox explains the relevance of Trump's 'vermin' comments
https://www.vox.com/2023/11/14/23958866 ... -democracy
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Re: On Day One, even

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It's really unfortunate that Trump would want to spend much time and money, seeking revenge of those who "betrayed" him than on issues like infrastructure, the welfare of the American people, etc.
And just think if one can not speak out and demonstrate for what they believe in. Of course, here in the Methow with only one officer part time, I doubt if they will be making any arrests. Have to send in the Guard.
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Re: On Day One, even

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Chris, you'd do well to cite from the rest of the article you linked to.
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Re: On Day One, even

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However well the first Trump administration did or did not do in rapidly developing and approving mRNA vaccines, it is undeniable that they completely dropped the ball on a distribution plan for those vaccines when they did become available. There wasn't one when Biden came into office and the Biden administration had to cobble one together from scratch in a few weeks.

I do not doubt that if the Trump administration would have held onto power, that very few of us would have seen any vaccine for many months and possibly never.

The FEMA report is interesting and constructive, but only covers really one part of government. What I'm looking for is some answers to a few specific questions:

1. We had a novel disease early warning system in place that funneled information about unidentified infections from state public health agencies to the CDC. I know those systems existed because I was one of many people who consulted on them in the early 2000s when they first came into being. Those systems also were working in the past during bird flu and swine flu outbreaks. So what the hell happened and why didn't they detect that COVID-19 was in active circulation in the United States in late December 2019? My suspicion is somebody dropped the ball at the CDC or possibly in the West Wing but can't know that for sure.

2. Your risk of dying of COVID-19 varied bewilderingly based on where you were living, and not always for obvious reasons. Why did that happen? More specifically in Washington, why was your odds of dying of COVID more than five times higher in some counties (mostly rural counties in Eastern Washington) than in others (e.g. King County, but also Jefferson and San Juan counties which can hardly be described as urbanized)?

3. Similarly, why did some cities (Seattle and San Francisco come to mind) handle the pandemic superbly, especially in the early period, while others (like New York City) seemed to have completely dropped the ball. I don't seriously think that there is any general competency advantage in Seattle's city government over New York City's. So what the heck happened? Why were people buried in mass graves in New York but not in the Bay Area or around Puget Sound?
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Re: On Day One, even

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I'll have to find the source but it is known that the Trump team did dismantle the emergency response playbook to a possible pandemice. Obama had it in place. That's one of the first things Trump team did was to toss it.
For me, it was early and not that much was known about the virus. Ok, Fauci messed up by saying masks weren't necessary, but I am still glad we had him. Even Birx did an eye roll when Trump mentioned bleach as a cure.
But back to what David posted in his last post. This is getting back to what this post is suppose to be about.
Who is vermin and who is not?
And Trump team is letting everyone know what he wants to do if he gets back into office. So we have been warned. Those in power need to take heed.
They don't want to take him seriously. Just laugh it off, oh it's just Trump.
It is not just outrageous stuff. He fired up his base enough to cause them to break into the Capitol. Yes, he did finally call it off after waiting a real long time. We've talked about this before, ad infinitum. And he said he loved them all but to go home.
For really good reporting, view Democracy Now. I do support that media.
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Re: On Day One, even

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just-jim wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 10:26 pm
Fun CH wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2023 9:25 am did you ask your cousin how many lives were saved because of the fast tracked Covid vaccine supported by the Trump administration?

And remember it was Fauci who said on 60 minutes that we don't need to wear masks. Later admitting that he said that so healthcare workers would have enough masks.
Only in ‘trump-speak’ world would a vaccination for a virus - discovered in November - be referred to as ‘fast tracked’ in July and be not available until the following January. They did dilly dally around. I recall, pretty clearly, that there were at least a few weeks of argument about whether or not to seek such approval, whether or not to consider it, whether or not to approve, etc. That’s on top fiddling around for 2 months at the start even admitting the virus was going to affect us all. Remember guilty donnie explaining how it would all just ‘go away’? Here’s 54 times he downplays the virus: https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/po ... video.html

Yes, Fauci - as the face of the Administrations covid efforts - went out and fell on his sword for the cameras. Just as he was required to do, to cover up the appalling lack of foresight and effort of his bosses.

Thanks for illustrating my point.

Accelerated approval by the FDA has been around for years. The trump administration didn’t invent it. https://www.fda.gov/patients/fast-track ... d-approval

mRNA technology had been in use for 20 years. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MRNA_vaccine

There are many types of Coronavirus- MERS and SARS being 2 human ones. And we have had vaccines for coronavirus in livestock for a longtime. Whether or not getting a human coronavirus vaccine in 2016 would have helped with a mutation that came about in 2019 is a GUESS; as the expert in the piece you posted said, “could”.

What DOES factor in is that covid-19 had a potential 9 Billion customers! SARS and MERS dissipated pretty quickly….so not surprising there was little interest in throwing money at it, at least from drug makers; they didn’t see a potential customer base.
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nice spin Jim. Fauci didn't fall on his sword for Trump. He mislead the country into believing we didn't need to wear masks.

Jim, no one knows how a coronavirus vaccine developed in 2016 would have helped in minimizing the suffering and death during the pandemic. The Obama/Biden administration didn't pour money into it the way the Trump administration did during the pandemic so we will never know. That's the point, can't play the what if game and speculate on how many people would have died if this or that was or wasn't done. Can't use that argument just to sow partisan division. Heck, A Trump supporter might say Trump saved your sorry arse.

All we know are the facts of what did happen.

And yes David, Trump says outrageous stuff to keep himself in the news cycle and fire up his base donations. You guys and the media you support seem to help with that effort.

It's just weird to see everything through the eyes of TDS.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/operatio ... -1.5806820

"Experts agree that the Trump administration's Operation Warp Speed played a significant role in Moderna's development of a potential vaccine."

"No doubt, Operation Warp Speed is a huge success," said Tinglong Dai, associate professor of Operations Management and Business Analytics at Johns Hopkins University Carey Business School in Baltimore.

"You can like or hate the Trump administration, but no doubt, it's a huge success — unprecedented success."

So pick your media source and let the internet argue with itself.

Or perhaps try to live out the rest of whatever time you have left on this wonderful planet in peace.
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Re: On Day One, even

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I remind all of that that this is what we're friggin' arguing about:

https://luciantruscott.substack.com/p/t ... -it-begins

There is going to be a place for all of us in one of those camps at some point in time. Authoritarian movements tend to eat themselves over time so don't think you're immune if you are a Trump supporter. They always need fresh sacrifices and if they run short they can always make something up.

If you think this is hysterical or Trump derangement syndrome, I merely point out that this is what they say they are going to do. Yes, these people do lie and BS a lot but it is reasonable to take them at their word.

This is what we are up against:

https://twitter.com/realsandibachom/sta ... 0229692455
Trump says “they’re poisoning the blood of our country”. These Nazis I filmed are called Blood Tribe. They asked me what ethnicity I was, and said “you’re a journalist you must be a Jew” they also chanted “Jews will not replace us” which I first heard in Charlottesville
Coming soon to your community.
We pledge to you that we will root out the communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country, that lie and steal and cheat on elections…They’ll do anything, whether legally or illegally, to destroy America and to destroy the American Dream.
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Re: On Day One, even

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Fun CH wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2023 9:25 am did you ask your cousin how many lives were saved because of the fast tracked Covid vaccine supported by the Trump administration?

And remember it was Fauci who said on 60 minutes that we don't need to wear masks. Later admitting that he said that so healthcare workers would have enough masks.
Only in ‘trump-speak’ world would a vaccination for a virus - discovered in November - be referred to as ‘fast tracked’ in July and be not available until the following January. They did dilly dally around. I recall, pretty clearly, that there were at least a few weeks of argument about whether or not to seek such approval, whether or not to consider it, whether or not to approve, etc. That’s on top fiddling around for 2 months at the start even admitting the virus was going to affect us all. Remember guilty donnie explaining how it would all just ‘go away’? Here’s 54 times he downplays the virus: https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/po ... video.html

Yes, Fauci - as the face of the Administrations covid efforts - went out and fell on his sword for the cameras. Just as he was required to do, to cover up the appalling lack of foresight and effort of his bosses.

Thanks for illustrating my point.

Accelerated approval by the FDA has been around for years. The trump administration didn’t invent it. https://www.fda.gov/patients/fast-track ... d-approval

mRNA technology had been in use for 20 years. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MRNA_vaccine

There are many types of Coronavirus- MERS and SARS being 2 human ones. And we have had vaccines for coronavirus in livestock for a longtime. Whether or not getting a human coronavirus vaccine in 2016 would have helped with a mutation that came about in 2019 is a GUESS; as the expert in the piece you posted said, “could”.

What DOES factor in is that covid-19 had a potential 9 Billion customers! SARS and MERS dissipated pretty quickly….so not surprising there was little interest in throwing money at it, at least from drug makers; they didn’t see a potential customer base.
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Re: On Day One, even

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Rideback wrote: Mon Nov 13, 2023 6:08 pm Why are you delving into 2016 with the SARS virus while asking questions about Covid? Two different viruses.
So, since you are hiding from the facts, here's the article in writing that I linked to. The podcast continues after this.
'Trump takes credit for the vaccine. Does he deserve it?
How much did Trump’s efforts effect vaccine development? Has Operation Warp Speed done more to help than our government’s pre-existing pandemic response system? Dr. Nicole Lurie of The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations answers questions.

Thursday, December 10, 2020


On Thursday morning, an advisory panel convened to decide whether the Food and Drug Administration will approve the first coronavirus vaccine to be administered in the U.S. This vaccine from drug manufacturer Pfizer and German firm BioNTech is one of two vaccines submitted for approval by the FDA. Dozens more vaccines are still being developed.

The potential approval of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is big news for our country, which faces overtaxed intensive care units, hospitals running out of beds, and growing numbers of cases and deaths from the virus every day.

This week, for the first time since the pandemic began, the U.S. reported more than 3,100 deaths in a single day.

The need for a vaccine is urgent, and the Trump administration for months has boasted of its efforts to bring a vaccine to the American people with unprecedented speed. Now, it appears at least one vaccine is probably here.

Though at first, after it’s approved, it will be available only to some health-care workers and nursing homes residents and staff. For most Americans, a vaccine probably won’t be available until at least spring, which means we have several more months before this pandemic can start to get under control.

The Trump administration has touted vaccine development as a major accomplishment in its covid-19 response.

President Trump held a news conference Tuesday to celebrate the vaccine and credit his own work in making the advances possible.

In particular, Trump has repeatedly credited the White House’s Operation Warp Speed initiative with providing the money and resources the government and private companies need to bring a vaccine to the population quickly.

But Pfizer, the company behind the vaccine awaiting FDA approval this week, has distanced itself from Operation Warp Speed. And critics say the initiative has fallen short on goals of delivering 300 million or so doses of vaccine by the end of the year.
So just how much did the Trump administration’s efforts directly affect vaccine development?

On this episode of the“Can He Do That?” podcast, Nicole Lurie of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, answers key questions like: Has Operation Warp Speed done more to help the process than our government’s preexisting pandemic response system? Plus, what’s hindered the development process, what’s helped and who deserves credit?
you post more opinion.

The article I quoted is about the fact that during the Obama and Biden administration that there was not money available to test (human trials) a corona virus vaccine.

What if the Obama/Biden administration had made money available to test early coronavirus vaccine attempts? Perhaps there would not have been a covid-19 pandemic?

If that had been done, how many lives would have been saved?

Quote from that NBC article:

"We tried like heck to see if we could get investors or grants to move this into the clinic," said Hotez, co-director of the Center for Vaccine Development at Texas Children's Hospital and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. "But we just could not generate much interest."

"Inside a major Boston medical center’s secret stockpile of medical supplies
That was a big missed opportunity, according to Hotez and other vaccine scientists, who argue that SARS, and the Middle East respiratory syndrome, or MERS, of 2012, should have triggered major federal and global investments to develop vaccines in anticipation of future epidemics."

You can play the what if game until the cows come home it doesn't change history.

Lots opinions out there, you use the ones that support your TDS divisiveness agenda.

I use the ones that support the fact that humans make mistakes. Trial and error is how we learn.

Learning from mistakes is one positive result of the pandemic and most every tragedy. Perhaps more lives will be saved next time.
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Re: On Day One, even

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Why are you delving into 2016 with the SARS virus while asking questions about Covid? Two different viruses.
So, since you are hiding from the facts, here's the article in writing that I linked to. The podcast continues after this.
'Trump takes credit for the vaccine. Does he deserve it?
How much did Trump’s efforts effect vaccine development? Has Operation Warp Speed done more to help than our government’s pre-existing pandemic response system? Dr. Nicole Lurie of The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations answers questions.

Thursday, December 10, 2020


On Thursday morning, an advisory panel convened to decide whether the Food and Drug Administration will approve the first coronavirus vaccine to be administered in the U.S. This vaccine from drug manufacturer Pfizer and German firm BioNTech is one of two vaccines submitted for approval by the FDA. Dozens more vaccines are still being developed.

The potential approval of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is big news for our country, which faces overtaxed intensive care units, hospitals running out of beds, and growing numbers of cases and deaths from the virus every day.

This week, for the first time since the pandemic began, the U.S. reported more than 3,100 deaths in a single day.

The need for a vaccine is urgent, and the Trump administration for months has boasted of its efforts to bring a vaccine to the American people with unprecedented speed. Now, it appears at least one vaccine is probably here.

Though at first, after it’s approved, it will be available only to some health-care workers and nursing homes residents and staff. For most Americans, a vaccine probably won’t be available until at least spring, which means we have several more months before this pandemic can start to get under control.

The Trump administration has touted vaccine development as a major accomplishment in its covid-19 response.

President Trump held a news conference Tuesday to celebrate the vaccine and credit his own work in making the advances possible.

In particular, Trump has repeatedly credited the White House’s Operation Warp Speed initiative with providing the money and resources the government and private companies need to bring a vaccine to the population quickly.

But Pfizer, the company behind the vaccine awaiting FDA approval this week, has distanced itself from Operation Warp Speed. And critics say the initiative has fallen short on goals of delivering 300 million or so doses of vaccine by the end of the year.
So just how much did the Trump administration’s efforts directly affect vaccine development?

On this episode of the“Can He Do That?” podcast, Nicole Lurie of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, answers key questions like: Has Operation Warp Speed done more to help the process than our government’s preexisting pandemic response system? Plus, what’s hindered the development process, what’s helped and who deserves credit?

>>>'Vermin' https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.c ... ue&r=2be3h
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Re: On Day One, even

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This was 2012-2016 during Obama /Biden administration. I guess you can always ask how many lives would have been saved if only....?


"Scientists were close to a coronavirus vaccine years ago. Then the money dried up."

"We just could not generate much interest," a researcher said of the difficulty in getting funding to test the vaccine in humans."

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-c ... d-n1150091
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Re: On Day One, even

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Could you imagine if research papers had your policy of not quoting facts?. Everything you wrote was processed through your own bias which I've found not to be too accurate here.

So yeah just your opinion at this point. Back it up or don't, not my call.
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Re: On Day One, even

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I take it you didn't open the WaPo fact checker link, much easier that way to hold onto your own opinions.

I cited facts, feel free to fact check yourself what I posted, I'm done doing the work for you.
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Re: On Day One, even

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Sorry it's up to you to quote facts. Otherwise it's opinion.

Interesting that you didn't site the lessons learned from Fed site report link that you posted to support your assertion.

I think it would set a good example to rely on facts if you're pushing division for either side.

It will be interesting to see what happens when the folks like me in the middle, who are tired of the partisan bickering, don't vote for Biden or Trump.
Last edited by Fun CH on Mon Nov 13, 2023 8:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: On Day One, even

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I took my facts from the WaPo fact checker site, you can go there to verify. https://www.washingtonpost.com/podcasts ... eserve-it/
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Re: On Day One, even

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Rideback wrote: Sun Nov 12, 2023 1:33 pm Again, the framework was in place, the research was in place, but we saw Pfizer distance itself from Trump's promises. In fact, Operation Warp Speed missed its target of getting the vaccines out to the public and fell short of its promises. With a pandemic the speed of responses is always key.


Cite Facts please Ride back not opinion.
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Re: On Day One, even

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Actually there are after-action reports, being done institutionally thru places like NIH. Just google covid after action reports. https://www.fema.gov/disaster/historic/ ... ent-report
Wayback in the Bush admin it was decided to look at virus outbreaks in a new paradigm; instead of seeing them as 'one pill/shot virus' it was decided to work on platforms that would set framework up in response. That platform framework continued through the Obama admin.

The studies on the mRNA solutions didn't begin under Trump, they were well underway over 10 years before Covid arrived. When Trump faced the Covid outbreak, he delayed and didn't get the dollars for Operation Warp Speed where they were needed quickly enough. Again, the framework was in place, the research was in place, but we saw Pfizer distance itself from Trump's promises. In fact, Operation Warp Speed missed its target of getting the vaccines out to the public and fell short of its promises. With a pandemic the speed of responses is always key.
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Re: On Day One, even

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I think it is fair to say that very few public figures covered themselves in glory during the COVID outbreak, in particular early on when it was all new and there was limited information.

Having said all that, it is important to keep in mind that more Americans died of COVID than died in every war in the 20th century, combined. One thing that has me extremely annoyed is that nobody seems to be doing the work to compile an after action analysis. Some things went right in the response to the pandemic. Some things went very wrong. Nobody seems even interested in writing all that down so next time this happens we will have something to refer to and hopefully avoid some of the mistakes which undeniably cost so many lives. Or maybe learn from the examples of what got done right.

My personal suspicion is that the major reason such an analysis is not being done is that it will make certain powerful and important people look very bad. Which means there is zero political will to actually do it. And not just Republicans.

I find it interesting that the 2004 SARS outbreak, which involved an also novel virus (related to COVID-19) that had a much higher fatality rate and was about as easy to transmit. But it was brought under control with seemingly relatively little effort. Did we just get lucky that time? Or did we get unlucky in late 2019 and early 2020? Or did we make our own luck?

I find it even more interesting that there was public information that a novel and highly contagious virus was circulating in Wuhan, China in November and December of 2019. Yet there was no real reaction at the Federal level (very much unlike the SARS outbreak in 2004) until late January and early February of 2020. Also, Americans, in America, were dying from an as-yet-unidentified respiratory virus in late December 2019 and early January 2020 -- weeks before the officially reported first fatalities. We have built early warning systems which are supposed to spot those situations, and they seemed to have worked at the state level and somehow gone into a black hole at the CDC. Why? What exactly happened there?

Yes, you can give the Trump administration credit for fast tracking the mRNA vaccines. But there were multiple questions on the test and that is honestly the only question they got right. So you can't seriously give them a passing grade (or honestly even a D minus) based on the vaccine alone.

And again, Fauci wasn't in charge. He wasn't making policy and didn't have the authority to do so. Yes, he made some bad calls and gave out bad information. But it is important to remember that he had very limited information and couldn't 100 percent see the future.
:arrow: David Bonn :idea:
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