What just changed in Ukraine

[Rideback]

Yes. With equipment failing, ammo & missles in short supply this is taking on the look of a supply chain parts nightmare. Record #s of soldiers killed, record #s MIA there is no longer the will, much less the training, for Russian troops to regain control. If Iran backs off their supply of drones it will be the final straw.

[mister_coffee]

I think unless the Russians come up with a dramatically different strategy in the coming weeks, they will likely be destroyed in place by Ukrainian forces over the next six months. This will leave no forces, or just broken fragments of forces, to defend Crimea. Note that if adequately defended, Crimea would be very difficult and ugly for the Ukrainians to capture.

There is an old saying about when an army doesn't know what to do, they do what they know. We are seeing that right now with the Rushka.

[mister_coffee]

I think the ongoing and persistent atrocities committed by the Russians is going to make any kind of peace negotiations impossible.

The last month has made it crystal clear that Ukraine intends to retake all of its territory and attacks on their civilian infrastructure seems unlikely to change their minds. Honestly I don't think that pressure from NATO or other donor countries will make much difference on that front either.

If reports of Ukrainians in Russian-occupied areas being deported to Russia are true I don't see the Ukrainians being interested in any kind of deal. That's particularly so if the reports of Ukrainian children being taken into Russia to be adopted by Russian families is true.

[Rideback]

After the bombing of Putin's bridge to Crimea he vowed retribution. Nearly 100 missle strikes followed whereupon about 50% of them were deterred by the Ukrainian defense systems. Of the ones that got through the most notable was Zelensky's command center strike.

The painful reality of Putin's intentional war crimes are front and center now.

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