I am so scared this Halloween season

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mister_coffee
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by mister_coffee »

"Women are not without electoral or political power" -- Samuel Alito, Dobbs decision.

We'll be finding out exactly how much electoral and political power they have today.
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just-jim
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by just-jim »

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Betting markets have swung - quickly - to Harris.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ds-polling
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by Rideback »

Meanwhile, Tucker Carlson says he's been visited by demons
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... H2-MvqCiXw
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by mister_coffee »

Harris had 90_000 volunteers knocking on 3 million doors just this last weekend in the battleground states. That's how you run for President.
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by Rideback »

I'm watching FL, today's polls show Trump up by 6.5 pts. Not much movement which makes me wonder if the pollsters are not capturing the PR vote because they are fired up big time. Also, if they are making the same judgment and not factoring in Dobbs, FL could be a much tighter race.
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by mister_coffee »

The recent history of the Selzer Poll:

June 2024: Trump +18 vs Biden
September 2024: Trump +4 vs Harris

Kind of calls into question that the Selzer Polls are missing Trump-friendly voters.

This poll is basically describing white women dramatically breaking towards Harris but men not so much. That means that the shift wouldn't be as dramatic in a more diverse state, like, I don't know, Texas or Florida. Preliminary election results will be released from Florida at 8:00pm Eastern time. In 2020 Trump won Florida by more than 400_000 votes. If the margin is much narrower this time we could be about to see something very interesting. Also Florida has an initiative on the ballot to roll back abortion restrictions.

So I'd keep an eye out on Florida.

Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, the Democratic Ground Game is firing on all cylinders knocking on 805_000 doors on Saturday. The Republican Ground Game doesn't seem to even exist. When Trump took over the RNC the GOTV efforts were all outsourced to PACS and the funds reserved for those efforts were diverted to his legal expenses. As far as anyone can tell the outsource Republican GOTV efforts haven't gotten any traction at all. I'd also note the Democratic GOTV efforts are all volunteer-based, while the R's have to pay their canvassers. That means their money doesn't go as far and their canvassers won't be as motivated in the first place.

Right now I am praying that this election is not at all close. That will make the inevitable election fraud claims by Trump and his flying monkeys seem even more ridiculous and hopefully they would get no traction at all.

This Quora post kind of goes into the weeds about what that Iowa poll might mean for tomorrow:

https://www.quora.com/What-do-you-think ... rd-can-she
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by mister_coffee »

That Iowa poll is a Big Deal Anne Selzer has a real track record and that is a well-ran poll with a large sample size in a small state.

Her late polls in 2016 pretty accurately predicted the coming disaster for the Clinton campaign.

The two big questions are if the trend she is seeing applies to other states and to down-ballot campaigns as well. One way or the other I think we will know in a couple of days.

One of the big problems with polling this election season has been a deep-seated inconsistency: the "gender gap" data and the fact that more women than men vote should translate into a 6+ point lead for Harris, but the top line polls showed a statistically tied race. One set of data had to be wrong.

Another way to look at this poll is that if you extrapolate it to the whole country that translates into about a 10 point lead for Harris. Which would imply a clean sweep for her in all of the swing states and she would probably be competitive in Florida and Texas. That is probably too much to hope for though.
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by just-jim »

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This is interesting…..polls in Iowa showing a late break for Harris.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... elzer-poll

This seems somewhat consistent with other stories about women moving to Harris…even traditional republican women defying their usual voting patterns (and maybe their husbands…..).
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by Rideback »

Alert from FBI

Today, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) released the following statement:

“The IC assesses that Russian actors manufactured and amplified a recent video that falsely depicted an individual ripping up ballots in Pennsylvania, judging from information available to the IC and prior activities of other Russian influence actors, including videos and other disinformation activities. Local election officials have already debunked the video’s content.

This Russian activity is part of Moscow’s broader effort to raise unfounded questions about the integrity of the US election and stoke divisions among Americans, as detailed in prior ODNI election updates. In the lead up to election day and in the weeks and months after, the IC expects Russia to create and release additional media content that seeks to undermine trust in the integrity of the election and divide Americans.”
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by mister_coffee »

People in mental decline often disinhibit and behave inappropriately in public:
Screen Shot 2024-11-02 at 7.11.40 AM.png
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1852543627534414086
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

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Trump at Warren, Michigan yesterday simulating oral sex on a microphone
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/1 ... medium=web
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

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Today, Gov. Jay Inslee activated some Washington National Guard members to be on stand-by in the event they are asked to support local law enforcement and the Washington State Patrol during election week. The governor has given The Adjutant General the authority to determine how many members of the Guard will be activated.

This is a purely precautionary measure taken in response to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s nationwide warnings regarding threats to election infrastructure and other recent activities that have occurred in southwestern Washington.

The Guard will be on stand-by for four days, beginning Monday, November 4, and ending just after midnight on Thursday, November 7, 2024.
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by PAL »

No need to be scared. Another medical problem at the Albuquerque Trump rally. A doctor was attending to someone and Trump kept asking if everything was ok. This seems to becoming the norm. Keep people waiting in the hot or the cold and they pass out.
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by Rideback »

Right wing extremist Charlie Kirk is screaming at his audience that the women are outvoting the men and if Harris wins it will be because the men didn't show up.

At this point Trump seems to be more interested in creating problems for a J6 2.0 than he does creating voters. I've never seen a campaign so hell bent on self destruction.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/31/politics ... index.html
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by mister_coffee »

Oh, yeah, early voting totals in the swing states are breaking about 55/45 for women:
Screen Shot 2024-10-31 at 7.35.30 AM.png
Do you really think that all (or even most) of those women are voting for a rapist?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FaCPck2qDhk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlsd1wZ9jF4
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by mister_coffee »

Apparently they have identified 280_000 Puerto Rican voters in Pennsylvania and 600_000 Puerto Rican voters in Florida. They are now phone banking them to make sure they go to the polls and vote.

So one thing you can do if you are stressed out about the fate of our nation is volunteer and call some of these good folks and respectfully ask them to vote.
Screen Shot 2024-10-30 at 11.24.42 PM.png
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by mister_coffee »

Somebody dressed up for Halloween a day early...
Screen Shot 2024-10-30 at 7.25.00 PM.png
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by mister_coffee »

Some folks don't think things are quite as clear cut as some of our Republican neighbors think.
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by just-jim »

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There is no bet, ken. You never took me up on my offer and I withdrew it, weeks ago.
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by mister_coffee »

Also, Harris' speech at the ellipse last night was a damned good speech.

The Harris campaign is leaving it all on the field. As they should.
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by mister_coffee »

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/I_know_y ... _what_am_I

We'll all know in a week or so. So there is little point to hurling insults at each other just yet.

Honestly if I thought this was going really badly I would be watching from a safe distance. Like Portugal or New Zealand.
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by dorankj »

Mirror! I’m looking forward to your check for my cause.
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by just-jim »

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Keep lying to yourself, ken. I know it sustains you, right now…..but it will end badly.
And then, I’m quite sure that you’ll whine about that, too. Because that’s all ya got - you are a whinny little b…..!
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Re: I am so scared this Halloween season

Post by mister_coffee »

Nobody with more than three functioning brain cells could be confident about the outcome of this election.

I think you could make a decent argument that a combination of systematic polling errors and some malicious behavior by people trying to game the system makes the predictive power of the polls essentially zero. On the other hand that's almost exactly what conclusion you can draw from the polls: a 50-50 chance basically means nobody knows. If this is a close election it is going to come down to turnout and enthusiasm, though.
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